New Delhi, November 13

The Northern Alliance appears comparatively muted despite the remarkable rout of the Taliban in the past three days and the jubilation on the streets of Kabul. A literal and metaphorical waiting and watching is on, according to military and political analysts here as well as Northern Alliance sources.

Earlier in the day, a Northern Alliance source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "Our soldiers are at the gates but they will not go in. Those who have gone in belong to a police force of 3000-4000 men who are drawn from all factions and parties. Meanwhile, there are talks going on among our leaders and commanders. In the next two to three days, it will be clear what will happen next."

The United States' military and political offensives have not kept pace and the Northern Alliance's arrival at Kabul has thrown up a piquant situation. "They were advised by the US not to enter Kabul until they devise some sort of political framework," points out international affairs commentator and former Indian envoy to Afghanistan J. N. Dixit.

And, as in the military campaign, the onus for gains on the ground appears to lie with the Northern Alliance. "The US is keeping all options open. It is indulging in a fishing exercise while dangling some carrots before the Northern Alliance, telling it, 'You work out a political arrangement with the Pashtuns'," says C. Uday Bhaskar of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Affairs here.

However, in the current scenario, he says, the process may be accelerated. "You never know, in the next 48 hours, there might well be an announcement of some political arrangement having been worked out - maybe a Zahir Shah-led government or, as Pakistan has been urging, a UN de-militarised zone," he adds.

Dixit disagrees squarely. "There is no consensus in sight and the political vacuum will continue for some time. There is simply no logical and linear resolution in sight. Perhaps part of this exercise was to reach some definitive stage before Ramzan," he says.

At the United Nations headquarters in New York, the "Group of Six" comprising the six nations that border Afghanistan - Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China and Pakistan - as well as the US and Russia held a meeting yesterday attended also by Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations' special envoy on Afghanistan, to hammer out a political arrangement. And the UN Security Council held an open meeting on Afghanistan today.

With military gains under its belt, the US may be even more willing to cater to Pakistan's concerns. The latest developments are obviously far from Pakistan's liking. Pakistan has a sizeable ethnic Pashtun population that has ties across the border and Islamabad has constantly urged that the Pashtuns, who, in any case, form the majority in Afghanistan, be included in any post-Taliban government. The Taliban government is Pashtun-based while the Northern Alliance is composed of minority Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras and is anathema to Pakistan.

The situation in Kabul is further complicated because of the differing objectives of the US and the Northern Alliance. "The US objectives are to capture Osama bin Laden, to dismantle Al-Qaeda, and to replace the Taliban regime - in that order. But the Northern Alliance's primary objective is the capture of Kabul and the overthrow of the Taliban," points out Uday Bhaskar.

The objectives converged somewhat in the military campaign. The Northern Alliance's dramatic advance to Kabul was facilitated by US air power and intelligence on the ground, and, perhaps, conjectures Uday Bhaskar, a lessening of support to the Taliban from the Pakistan military.

Northern Alliance sources explain, "We had planned a simultaneous push in central and southern Afghanistan, in Taliban-controlled areas. We had been looking for a crack. That happened in Mazar-e-Sharif. The fall of Mazar-e-Sharif was the key."

Defections played no small part. The local Afghan commanders defected while the Pakistanis and Arabs tried to escape or hide. "Besides, the local people are revolting against the Taliban. In Herat, which we captured just before Kabul, the people revolted. And, mark my words, in two or three days, Kandahar will fall because the people there will revolt and the local commanders will defect," declared a Northern Alliance source.

But, as Dixit points out drily, it will be difficult for the Northern Alliance to push on into the Pashtun heartland in the south and west of Afghanistan without US support. "And the US is reluctant to help them now because of its equations with Pakistan," he says. Even if the Northern Alliance takes over Kabul and then marches on to capture Ghazni and Kandahar on its own, it will be unable to consolidate its gains.

In any case, a period of guerrilla warfare appears to be in the offing with the Taliban retreating from cities with the Northern Alliance in pursuit.

Meanwhile, the Taliban's Pakistani and Arab fighters are cornered in Kabul, and this may lead to a law and order problem similar to that in Mazar-e-Sharif after its fall three days ago.

"In Mazar-e-Sharif, the Pakistanis took some hostages. They seized children and used them as human shields. This happened in the Sultan Razia girls' high school. However, they were captured ultimately. About 200 of them were captured," said a Northern Alliance source.

Despite the Northern Alliance troops' halt at the gates of Kabul, fears of a bloodbath in the city have not been entirely allayed. In 1998, when the Northern Alliance briefly retook Mazar-e-Sharif, it committed atrocities that paralleled those committed by the Taliban. People were lined up and shot, thrown into wells, and buried alive in pits. It is partly because of this track record, in which Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum played a stellar role, that the Northern Alliance's friends today find it difficult to justify helping it form the government alone.