New Delhi, November 11

In the shadow of war in Afghanistan, are the two difficult neighbours of India and Pakistan heading for an arms build-up? Such concern stems directly from the fact that both countries are vying for military collaboration with the world's super cop, the United States of America. Indeed, the case of Pakistan having an upper edge is not lost because of its unstinted support to the US as a frontline state in the latter's war against terrorism.

"In such an event" says Kanti Bajpai, professor of Disarmament Studies at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) " in principle India as a neighbour of Pakistan should be worried about the arms procurement of the latter". Since the details of Pakistani acquisition are not known it is too early to state categorically what will be its implications.

Pakistan is demanding, in return for supporting the US-led alliance the dreaded F 16 fighter planes. "This demand, if indeed met, should not be taken lightly" asserts Brahma Chellaney, defence expert at Centre for Policy Research " because F 16' aircraft are offensive weapons used for attacking rather than defence purposes".

Any military aid that enables Pakistan to upgrade its air power should be viewed with suspicion because India was able to win the Kargil war in 1999 because of its superior air power. A close scrutiny of the terrain of Kashmir ( hilly and high altitude ), which forms the bone of contention between India and Pakistan, (although India officially does not admit it and over which three wars have been fought so far) reveal that sophisticated air power is critical for gaining an edge in an armed conflict.

Chellaney allays fears of Pakistan posing an immediate threat in the form of F 16's as India have a counter-capability in the Russian built Sukhoi 30. Chellaney adds that " with the Pakistani economy in the doldrums India need not fear, but there is no doubt that the ground for a major possible Pakistani offensive in two to three years is surely being laid now ".

Talking about the Indian defence initiative, Bajpai says that the present procurement process is nothing exceptional but a reflection of an ongoing cycle. According to Bajpai "every 10 years India goes shopping for major armaments. This is partially for modernisation of the armed forces, while also for looking for weapons delivery systems as India have failed to indigenously develop them". The Sukhois procured from Russia are a case in point, which can deliver missile not just into Pakistan, but can go deep into China.

Apart from Pakistan, in the 55 years of India's independence the country has gone to war with China in 1962 over disputed border. In a clear violation of India's territorial integrity, the latter had intruded into India's north -eastern border.

It needs to be noted that F 16 aircraft can be easily modified to act as a missile delivery vehicle. Sreedhar Rao, defence analyst in the Institute of Defence and Strategic Analysis (IDSA), however, asserts that India has nothing to fear even if F 16s are delivered to Pakistan because the US Arms Sales Act of 1954 has built-in conditions that will avert such misuse. Of particular importance is the condition, which allows the US to monitor and stop the sale of any spare parts in any armament deal. According to Sreedhar, without the required spare parts one cannot convert the F 16s into a weapon delivery system.

Citing the same Arms Act, he also rules out India entering into any arms deal with the US. The Act categorically states that there will be technology transfer along with any sale of armaments. This acts as a handicap from the Indian perspective as the country is bound by the Arms Act of 1963 to buy only such weapons system that comes along with technology transfer. The present round of arms talks of the two neighbours with the US turns out to be mere soundbites.