US support for Uzbekistan president Islam Karimov - whose crackdown on political opponents and religious leaders has caused widespread dissatisfaction - may result in the
very anti-US government Washington hopes to avoid, says Priscilla Patton

Namangan (Uzbekistan), November 9

Ahmad Abdulleav is the perfect host. An ex-boxer, he sits upright and confidently, proudly talks about his heritage, his home and the beauty of the historic valley where he lives and makes sure the table is groaning with food and drink.

But eventually, along with the unending flow of dates and raisins and almonds that come to the guest table, come the stories of repression. Each neighbour ticks off the vital statistics for their family: how many sons, how many daughters, how many grandchildren - and how many family members in jail.

There is the woman whose husband was put in prison, having confessed to a crime he did not commit only when the police threatened to rape his wife in front of him. There is another neighbour in prison for talking and being quoted by name in a Western newspaper.

Even the host has not been spared: one of his sons, age 27, is still in prison on vague charges of antistate activities.

As the US-led war against terrorism continues to throttle up, wary eyes are being cast towards Uzbekistan in general and the Fergana Valley, where Namangan is located, in particular. This is the home of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a distant relation to the Taliban which runs Afghanistan; like the Taliban, the IMU hopes to install a similar strict Islamic regime in Uzbekistan.

That is the last thing the United States would want to have happen. But ironically, it may be the US support for Uzbekistan president Islam Karimov - whose crackdown on the IMU, political opponents and religious leaders has caused widespread dissatisfaction - which results in the very anti-US government Washington hopes to avoid.

Abdulleav, a leading human rights advocate who admires, likes and cheers on the United States, bluntly offers up a warning over the pouring of green tea: "If the Americans help just Karimov and not the people, then this place will become Iran."

About 88 per cent of the Uzbek population is Muslim. "Our people are sheep, but in a few moments they could become a lion," Abdulleav, 53, said through a translator. "If the people gather around, it can turn around."

With a southern border with Afghanistan, Karimov was one of the first to embrace the US effort against Osama bin Laden and his al Qaida network and open up his nation's military bases to US troops.

In return, President Bush specifically cited the IMU during his September 20 speech to Congress about the new worldwide effort against terrorism. That gave Karimov what he has long craved - credibility for his own crackdown.

But while that nod from Bush caused many happy faces among Karimov and his advisors, it sent shudders of concern among human rights advocates here as well as the many families who have seen relatives hauled off to jail, tortured and, in some cases, allegedly murdered for such seemingly mundane activities as practicing their religion, trying to start Internet cafes or criticising the policies of the government.

"I think the Uzbeks are very happy with the new alliance," said Acacia Shields, the former Central Asia regional director for Human Rights Watch. "They expect the new alliance will mean the United States and the European Union will criticise them less because of the terrorist threat Uzbekistan is facing."

Human Rights Watch says there are about 7,000 Uzbeks now in jails for essentially trying to practice religion outside the state-sanctioned mosques, handing out religious literature or wearing "religious clothing". Almost all were convicted in speedy trials that ended in long prison sentences.

And lest anyone think the new presence of US troops, businessmen and other Western eyes in Uzbekistan has already softened the government's stance, Karimov reinforced his position on October 9. He went on television to warn anyone passing out unapproved leaflets would pay the price: "Those who are spreading propaganda on behalf of religion should be recognised as being supportive of evildoers," he said.

The question now looms large: whether the US influence will temper the repression which seems to lurk throughout Uzbekistan - and thus having the United States be remembered by Uzbeks as an advocate for positive change - or whether US officials will turn a blind eye to the problems and eventually be linked as co-conspirators in the crackdown that will produce another festering region of anti-US hatred.

Karimov is not oblivious to the new reality, especially now that many more Americans know where Uzbekistan is located and are paying more attention to what occurs here.

In an October 5 press conference, he acknowledged that US officials had raised questions of human rights violations with him and that there were "a number of problems" in his country.

But Karimov insisted that "the dynamic" is one of improvement. He said that after former secretary of state Madeleine Albright visited Tashkent, the capital, last year and saw the changes, "there was a certain transition in the US attitude". Diplomats in Tashkent questioned that interpretation.