Black Gold and Collateral Damage
screamingcuttlefish | 10.10.2001 12:10
It’s started. Now that the initial P.R. is over and both the Taliban and Bin Laden have been thoroughly (and, albeit for different reasons such as the persecution of the Hindu minority, rightly) vilified, the great liberating armies of freedom and democracy can proceed with the task of blasting another country back to the Stone Age. The spin doctors and media men all tell us that it is not a war on Islam, and in a sense they are right. What they neglect to mention is that neither is it a war on terrorism. It is a war fought over something far closer to the heart of the American administration’s heart, and the unimpeded access of Western multinationals to this Holy Grail. This ‘war’ is all about oil.
On a superficial level, it is about a deal with Saudi Arabia to suppress Islamic Fundamentalism in return for oil price stability – Saudi Arabia controlling OPEC in the same way, but to a greater degree, as America controls the UN. This is the point of several economists and, although valid to a degree, masks the wider issue. What makes it all worse is the fact that Afghanistan itself does not have any oil reserves (although it is possessed of substantial mineral and natural gas supplies). It is the Caspian Sea, lying on the northern borders of Afghanistan’s northern neighbours Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, that holds the oil. Besides the 18-34 US Billion (1,000,000,000,000) barrels currently proven, the region’s possible oil reserves could yield another 235 billion barrels of oil (as compared to proven reserves of 22 billion in the US or 17 billion in the North Sea). Western oil companies already have significant investments in this area. The trouble is how to get the oil out of the Caspian Littoral region.
There are four directions to choose from. North, through the old Soviet pipeline system, has proven flaws for the oil producers (including companies such as Exxon, Royal Dutch/Shell and Chevron). The former Soviet republics to whom this export route leads are notoriously bad debtors, paying late when at all, and the problem is compounded by the carriage levy placed by the Russian oil commission for use of its pipelines. West, to Europe, is a relatively easy route. However, the European oil market is not predicted to grow by much more than 1 million barrels/day (bbl/d) over the next 10 – 15 years. Far more lucrative would be the Asian market to the East, where growth is anticipated at 10 million bbl/d over the same period. However, this route is geographically undesirable and would add even more length (and therefore cost) to the pipeline.
South provides two options. The first runs through Iran to the Persian Gulf, where oil would then be loaded onto tankers for onward shipment. U.S. companies are prohibited from conducting business with Iran under U.S. law, though, and the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act imposes sanctions on non-U.S. companies investing in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. The other option is through Afghanistan to the Indian and Pakistani markets. This second option has, of course, one small hiccup – an anti-western Islamic fundamentalist government. Now the excuse exists to replace this administration with one far more receptive to Western needs – a war against terrorism. Yet the ‘evidence’ for the involvement of Al Qaida and the Taliban in the September 11th ‘plane crashes as presented on the UK government’s web site is circumstantial at best, and much of the ‘proof’ could as easily be presented against any Middle Eastern Islamic state.
The stated intention already exists, as expressed by the British defence secretary in a recent Sunday Times article, to supervise the establishment of a replacement regime in the aftermath of the current military operations. The same article also quotes ‘military sources’ as admitting that the Northern Alliance mujaheddin “could not be expected to form a credible government”. I.e. their aims may conflict with, or at least not facilitate, Western desires for a stable and acquiescent local government. Previous American intervention of a similar kind in Central American countries has not exactly provided sparkling results.
Once again, and certainly not for the last time, innocent lives in a far away country are being spent to buy profits for Western multinationals and, if you’re lucky, cheaper petrol for your car. God bless America.
On a superficial level, it is about a deal with Saudi Arabia to suppress Islamic Fundamentalism in return for oil price stability – Saudi Arabia controlling OPEC in the same way, but to a greater degree, as America controls the UN. This is the point of several economists and, although valid to a degree, masks the wider issue. What makes it all worse is the fact that Afghanistan itself does not have any oil reserves (although it is possessed of substantial mineral and natural gas supplies). It is the Caspian Sea, lying on the northern borders of Afghanistan’s northern neighbours Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, that holds the oil. Besides the 18-34 US Billion (1,000,000,000,000) barrels currently proven, the region’s possible oil reserves could yield another 235 billion barrels of oil (as compared to proven reserves of 22 billion in the US or 17 billion in the North Sea). Western oil companies already have significant investments in this area. The trouble is how to get the oil out of the Caspian Littoral region.
There are four directions to choose from. North, through the old Soviet pipeline system, has proven flaws for the oil producers (including companies such as Exxon, Royal Dutch/Shell and Chevron). The former Soviet republics to whom this export route leads are notoriously bad debtors, paying late when at all, and the problem is compounded by the carriage levy placed by the Russian oil commission for use of its pipelines. West, to Europe, is a relatively easy route. However, the European oil market is not predicted to grow by much more than 1 million barrels/day (bbl/d) over the next 10 – 15 years. Far more lucrative would be the Asian market to the East, where growth is anticipated at 10 million bbl/d over the same period. However, this route is geographically undesirable and would add even more length (and therefore cost) to the pipeline.
South provides two options. The first runs through Iran to the Persian Gulf, where oil would then be loaded onto tankers for onward shipment. U.S. companies are prohibited from conducting business with Iran under U.S. law, though, and the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act imposes sanctions on non-U.S. companies investing in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. The other option is through Afghanistan to the Indian and Pakistani markets. This second option has, of course, one small hiccup – an anti-western Islamic fundamentalist government. Now the excuse exists to replace this administration with one far more receptive to Western needs – a war against terrorism. Yet the ‘evidence’ for the involvement of Al Qaida and the Taliban in the September 11th ‘plane crashes as presented on the UK government’s web site is circumstantial at best, and much of the ‘proof’ could as easily be presented against any Middle Eastern Islamic state.
The stated intention already exists, as expressed by the British defence secretary in a recent Sunday Times article, to supervise the establishment of a replacement regime in the aftermath of the current military operations. The same article also quotes ‘military sources’ as admitting that the Northern Alliance mujaheddin “could not be expected to form a credible government”. I.e. their aims may conflict with, or at least not facilitate, Western desires for a stable and acquiescent local government. Previous American intervention of a similar kind in Central American countries has not exactly provided sparkling results.
Once again, and certainly not for the last time, innocent lives in a far away country are being spent to buy profits for Western multinationals and, if you’re lucky, cheaper petrol for your car. God bless America.
screamingcuttlefish
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screamingcuttlefish@hotmail.com