Peak Oil arrived at the London School of Economics on Wednesday night with a debate organised by Powerswitch.org.uk and co-ordinated by Merlin Matthews.
Peak Oil - the global crisis
The main advertised speaker was Chris Skrewbowski, editor of Petroleum Review with the panel featuring Paul Mobbs, author of 'Energy Beyond Oil', Tim Dyson, Prof of Population Studies LSE, and Merlin Matthews, ex LSE student who founded a recycling charity, re-cycle.org.The chair was David Kingsley.
Skrewbowski gave a brief introduction to the concept of Peak Oil, highlighting some of the evidence that points to the peak occurring sooner than many economists seem to think, and also why the market-led ideas proposed as 'solutions', are both a smokescreen and a distraction from the bigger issues.
To summarise, the key-points from the talk were:
1>World oil supplies are going to peak soon as production is falling at 5% per year. 90% of known reserves are in production. All the biggest and best fields have already been found.
2>Within the next ten years demand will outstrip supply and oil will become more and more expensive.
3>Oil has the greatest energy density of any fuel, and it provides amongst other things
transport, heating, fertilisers + pesticides, gas, plastics, inks + dyes and electricity.
4>Renewables cannot replace this - wind and solar are good for electricity but you cannot fly planes or build roads or grow food with them.
5>Things may fall apart.
After Skrewbowski's talk, the debate was opened up for questions from the audience. The questions were open and varied, including one storming contribution from a Rwandan refugee who voiced alarm at the implications of peak oil for the poorer nations, particularly in light of the war on Iraq. His concern is that rogue nations would use military force in a darwinian 'survival of the biggest' to ensure that the we in the west can maintain our current lifestyle with a new flurry of resource wars. He won a large round of applause from the audience.
Another was a contribution from a student of LSE who pointed out that the Middle East has vast amounts of oil reserves still remaining and that we should, if necessary, secure them by force just like in Iraq!
Aside from the ethical considerations of invading other countries and spilling blood for oil, Paul Mobbs from the panel pointed out that the original estimates for known reserves in the Middle East were vastly updated during the late 80's, with countries doubling or quadrupling their reserve estimates and in one case by a factor of 10!
It is alleged that this increase came about due to new OPEC rules which rewarded bigger producers by allocating them larger quotas. There has not been a corresponding increase in oil fields or other activity in the Middle East to explain the extra reserves. This is also another reason that the peak may be sooner than people think.
The difference between individual and industrial consumption was highlighted with one audience member asking "..whats the point of me reducing my energy use by boiling less water in my kettle when from my window i can see Canary Wharf, at night, with every room brightly lit?"
Mobbs backed this up by pointing out that 31% of UK energy consumption is for domestic users - the majority by far is for transport and industry, or as it's otherwise known, capitalism. The C word wasn't mentioned once during the entire evening, but it was clear that big changes are expected. When you have the editor of Petrol Review bemoaning economists for not living in the real world, and advocating that people should work for collective solutions rather than engaging in an individualistic and competitive manner you know something is afoot.
Two last questions concerned food and electricity.
Audience member: If we covered every roof in the UK in solar panels, wouldn't that help?
Paul Mobbs: Do you mean PV panels for electricity or for Solar thermal heating?
Audience member: Electricity
Paul Mobbs: Oh dear. Domestic electricity accounts for just 9% of UK energy use. If you are talking about solar thermal panels then that could be a valuable contribution as most heating is provided by oil and gas. (Space heating and hot water accounted for 82% of domestic use, and 64% of commercial uses.)
Concerning agriculture, a question was asked about what impact the end of cheap oil, and therefore affordable pesticides and fertilisers, will have on food production.
Tim Dyson gave a confused answer saying that as long as we can still get nitrogen in the soil there should still be high yields, but he seemed unsure whether oil and gas peaking would affect this, (it does). Other panel members pointed out the problem of top-soils' nutrient depletion comes from industrial monoculture which is a large reason for continued fertiliser use anyway. The likelihood is that food will have to produced more locally as transport will be uneconomic.
Cuba was cited as a example of a country that headed into an agricultural crisis and emerged intact, the massive increase in urban food production using organic techniques and biological pest controls lead to stability of supply.
The talks carried on after the event finished. I got the feeling a lot of the people were both pleasantly and unpleasantly surprised by the talks. Unpleasantly, as the crisis appears to be a lot sooner than previously realised, with seemingly no viable alternatives to oil in hugely varied sectors. Pleasantly surprised, as it wasn't all doom and gloom - there are possible ways through this and a lot of them directly counter what to many people is a blatantly unfair and unjust system. Are conventional economics and capitalism about to have the rug pulled out from under them?
Paul Mobbs summed it up:
Less is a four letter word.
Useful Sites:
1>Energy Beyond Oil –
http://www.fraw.org.uk/ebo/archive.html
2>Powerswitch website http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/
3> Review of Oct 05 'End of Oil' conference - http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=976&Itemid=2
stuffit /
Skrewbowski gave a brief introduction to the concept of Peak Oil, highlighting some of the evidence that points to the peak occurring sooner than many economists seem to think, and also why the market-led ideas proposed as 'solutions', are both a smokescreen and a distraction from the bigger issues.
To summarise, the key-points from the talk were:
1>World oil supplies are going to peak soon as production is falling at 5% per year. 90% of known reserves are in production. All the biggest and best fields have already been found.
2>Within the next ten years demand will outstrip supply and oil will become more and more expensive.
3>Oil has the greatest energy density of any fuel, and it provides amongst other things
transport, heating, fertilisers + pesticides, gas, plastics, inks + dyes and electricity.
4>Renewables cannot replace this - wind and solar are good for electricity but you cannot fly planes or build roads or grow food with them.
5>Things may fall apart.
After Skrewbowski's talk, the debate was opened up for questions from the audience. The questions were open and varied, including one storming contribution from a Rwandan refugee who voiced alarm at the implications of peak oil for the poorer nations, particularly in light of the war on Iraq. His concern is that rogue nations would use military force in a darwinian 'survival of the biggest' to ensure that the we in the west can maintain our current lifestyle with a new flurry of resource wars. He won a large round of applause from the audience.
Another was a contribution from a student of LSE who pointed out that the Middle East has vast amounts of oil reserves still remaining and that we should, if necessary, secure them by force just like in Iraq!
Aside from the ethical considerations of invading other countries and spilling blood for oil, Paul Mobbs from the panel pointed out that the original estimates for known reserves in the Middle East were vastly updated during the late 80's, with countries doubling or quadrupling their reserve estimates and in one case by a factor of 10!
It is alleged that this increase came about due to new OPEC rules which rewarded bigger producers by allocating them larger quotas. There has not been a corresponding increase in oil fields or other activity in the Middle East to explain the extra reserves. This is also another reason that the peak may be sooner than people think.
The difference between individual and industrial consumption was highlighted with one audience member asking "..whats the point of me reducing my energy use by boiling less water in my kettle when from my window i can see Canary Wharf, at night, with every room brightly lit?"
Mobbs backed this up by pointing out that 31% of UK energy consumption is for domestic users - the majority by far is for transport and industry, or as it's otherwise known, capitalism. The C word wasn't mentioned once during the entire evening, but it was clear that big changes are expected. When you have the editor of Petrol Review bemoaning economists for not living in the real world, and advocating that people should work for collective solutions rather than engaging in an individualistic and competitive manner you know something is afoot.
Two last questions concerned food and electricity.
Audience member: If we covered every roof in the UK in solar panels, wouldn't that help?
Paul Mobbs: Do you mean PV panels for electricity or for Solar thermal heating?
Audience member: Electricity
Paul Mobbs: Oh dear. Domestic electricity accounts for just 9% of UK energy use. If you are talking about solar thermal panels then that could be a valuable contribution as most heating is provided by oil and gas. (Space heating and hot water accounted for 82% of domestic use, and 64% of commercial uses.)
Concerning agriculture, a question was asked about what impact the end of cheap oil, and therefore affordable pesticides and fertilisers, will have on food production.
Tim Dyson gave a confused answer saying that as long as we can still get nitrogen in the soil there should still be high yields, but he seemed unsure whether oil and gas peaking would affect this, (it does). Other panel members pointed out the problem of top-soils' nutrient depletion comes from industrial monoculture which is a large reason for continued fertiliser use anyway. The likelihood is that food will have to produced more locally as transport will be uneconomic.
Cuba was cited as a example of a country that headed into an agricultural crisis and emerged intact, the massive increase in urban food production using organic techniques and biological pest controls lead to stability of supply.
The talks carried on after the event finished. I got the feeling a lot of the people were both pleasantly and unpleasantly surprised by the talks. Unpleasantly, as the crisis appears to be a lot sooner than previously realised, with seemingly no viable alternatives to oil in hugely varied sectors. Pleasantly surprised, as it wasn't all doom and gloom - there are possible ways through this and a lot of them directly counter what to many people is a blatantly unfair and unjust system. Are conventional economics and capitalism about to have the rug pulled out from under them?
Paul Mobbs summed it up:
Less is a four letter word.
Useful Sites:
1>Energy Beyond Oil –
http://www.fraw.org.uk/ebo/archive.html 2>Powerswitch website
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/ 3> Review of Oct 05 'End of Oil' conference -
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=976&Itemid=2 stuffit /