Tactical Anti-Racist Votes in the NW
This article is intended to provide information to Indymedia readers who choose to vote in the European elections in the North West region. It aims to provide the anti-racist majority with information to prevent the election of a racist MEP Nick Griffin, who heads the BNP list in our region. It is not advocating any of these particular hierarchical political structures, but is advocating that anti-racists should vote to keep out the BNP.
Firstly, a brief explanation of the D'Hondt system used to allocate seats for European parliamentary elections. It is a proportional system that can allow a smaller party to get elected. In the North West region in 1999, the Tories gained 5 seats, Labour gained 4 and the Liberal Democrats got 1. The 4th placed party did not win a seat, but they would have done with as little as 7.1% of the vote.
Secondly, it will be the votes cast for the largest 3 parties that will determine what vote is needed for a 4th placed party to get elected. For example, if both the Tories and Labour get less than 32%, it means that just 8% will definitely be enough for a 4th placed party to get elected. If the Tories get 36% and the Liberal Democrats get 18%, it would mean that the 4th placed party would need to get 9% of the vote. To check out the system use the D'Hondt calculator at
http://www.cix.co.uk/~broadway/pr95/.
Finally, this year there are only 9 seats up for election in our region following the expansion of the European Union. This means that a 4th placed party is likely to need more than 8% of the vote to win a seat. It is highly unlikely that a 5th placed party will win a seat, even with 8% of the vote and it would require a drastic fall in Tory and Labour votes to allow a 5th placed party to win a seat under any circumstances.
Who are the contenders for 4th place?
THE BNP: As recently as January, Searchlight was predicting that the BNP could gain up to 9% of the vote in the North West region. Even with the introduction of all postal ballots, we can still reasonably expect that the BNP will record their best ever Euro election results. It is therefore absolutely essential that tactical anti-racist votes ensure that they finish in 5th place to minimise their prospects of getting elected.
Prediction: Big increase in support from 1999
THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY: An anti-European party with a nationalist agenda. They finished in 4th place in 1999 with 6.6% of the vote. Since then they have done very little in the North West. They have no representatives at a local level but do get national press coverage because of MEPs in other regions. Their campaign in the North West so far seems to consist of yellow and purple posters on "vote no to Europe" billboards. Their vote may not be entirely cannibalised by the BNP, and hopefully will ensure a split between the hard right and far right votes.
Prediction: Loses support to Tories and BNP
THE GREEN PARTY: A party with environmental, anti-war and social justice manifesto. Finished in 5th place with 5.6% of the vote in 1999. They have 9 elected councillors in the North West (including Manchester). Their European campaign was launched with national press coverage and they also generate regional press. Their glossy (but recycled) freepost leaflets should be received by every registered voter in the North West of England this week. There will also be leafleting and door knocking in target council wards in Liverpool and Manchester.
Prediction: Increase in support from anti-war Labour and non-voters
RESPECT: This is new party on the left, launched in January 2004, having evolved from parts of the Stop the War coalition and the Socialist Alliance, with George Galloway as a co-founder following his expulsion from the Labour Party. In 1999, the combined socialist vote was less than 2%. They have 1 councillor in Preston (elected as a Socialist Alliance candidate). National coverage seems focused on the London region where Galloway heads the list, with some local coverage. The North West campaign so far has included leafleting some areas and fly posting in cities.
Prediction: Increase in small socialist share of vote in 1999 with support from anti-war Labour and non-voters
THE LIBERAL PARTY: The remainder of the original Liberal Party who refused to accept the Liberal merger with the SDP. Strong local support based around Liverpool, where they have 3 councillors, meant they finished 6th in 1999 gaining 2.2% (22,000+ votes) in 1999 although they still lost their deposit. They have no national press coverage, and limited regional coverage. Their vote is unlikely to change significantly from the 1999 level.
Prediction: Small decrease in votes
OTHERS: There are other parties standing candidates but these are unlikely to attract significant support.
Prediction: No surprises. Little support.
The purpose of this article is to inform people. To ensure that we keep out the BNP, anti-racist voters will have to vote tactically, at this election, in this region. I would ask Indymedia readers to research the above information and to make up their own minds. Anti-racist votes for parties that finish with less votes than the BNP will do absolutely nothing to reduce the chances of a racist being elected as our MEP.
I'd ask party activists to correct me on any incorrect information, but to avoid blatant political advertising, attacks on other parties or sabotage (so this information can stay up and people can use it). I have tried to be as impartial as possible because the desire to stop a racist MEP from becoming one of our North West representatives should be more powerful than the disagreements democratic parties have with each other.
A 9% vote for a 4th placed party should ensure the BNP are defeated. Indymedia readers should be left to make up their own minds which of the above options is best placed to do this, but whatever you decide, please don't comment on it, because then it will become advertising and everyone else loses the information. The only winners then are the BNP.
This article is intended to provide information to Indymedia readers who choose to vote in the European elections in the North West region. It aims to provide the anti-racist majority with information to prevent the election of a racist MEP Nick Griffin, who heads the BNP list in our region. It is not advocating any of these particular hierarchical political structures, but is advocating that anti-racists should vote to keep out the BNP.
Firstly, a brief explanation of the D'Hondt system used to allocate seats for European parliamentary elections. It is a proportional system that can allow a smaller party to get elected. In the North West region in 1999, the Tories gained 5 seats, Labour gained 4 and the Liberal Democrats got 1. The 4th placed party did not win a seat, but they would have done with as little as 7.1% of the vote.
Secondly, it will be the votes cast for the largest 3 parties that will determine what vote is needed for a 4th placed party to get elected. For example, if both the Tories and Labour get less than 32%, it means that just 8% will definitely be enough for a 4th placed party to get elected. If the Tories get 36% and the Liberal Democrats get 18%, it would mean that the 4th placed party would need to get 9% of the vote. To check out the system use the D'Hondt calculator at
http://www.cix.co.uk/~broadway/pr95/. Finally, this year there are only 9 seats up for election in our region following the expansion of the European Union. This means that a 4th placed party is likely to need more than 8% of the vote to win a seat. It is highly unlikely that a 5th placed party will win a seat, even with 8% of the vote and it would require a drastic fall in Tory and Labour votes to allow a 5th placed party to win a seat under any circumstances.
Who are the contenders for 4th place?
THE BNP: As recently as January, Searchlight was predicting that the BNP could gain up to 9% of the vote in the North West region. Even with the introduction of all postal ballots, we can still reasonably expect that the BNP will record their best ever Euro election results. It is therefore absolutely essential that tactical anti-racist votes ensure that they finish in 5th place to minimise their prospects of getting elected.
Prediction: Big increase in support from 1999
THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY: An anti-European party with a nationalist agenda. They finished in 4th place in 1999 with 6.6% of the vote. Since then they have done very little in the North West. They have no representatives at a local level but do get national press coverage because of MEPs in other regions. Their campaign in the North West so far seems to consist of yellow and purple posters on "vote no to Europe" billboards. Their vote may not be entirely cannibalised by the BNP, and hopefully will ensure a split between the hard right and far right votes.
Prediction: Loses support to Tories and BNP
THE GREEN PARTY: A party with environmental, anti-war and social justice manifesto. Finished in 5th place with 5.6% of the vote in 1999. They have 9 elected councillors in the North West (including Manchester). Their European campaign was launched with national press coverage and they also generate regional press. Their glossy (but recycled) freepost leaflets should be received by every registered voter in the North West of England this week. There will also be leafleting and door knocking in target council wards in Liverpool and Manchester.
Prediction: Increase in support from anti-war Labour and non-voters
RESPECT: This is new party on the left, launched in January 2004, having evolved from parts of the Stop the War coalition and the Socialist Alliance, with George Galloway as a co-founder following his expulsion from the Labour Party. In 1999, the combined socialist vote was less than 2%. They have 1 councillor in Preston (elected as a Socialist Alliance candidate). National coverage seems focused on the London region where Galloway heads the list, with some local coverage. The North West campaign so far has included leafleting some areas and fly posting in cities.
Prediction: Increase in small socialist share of vote in 1999 with support from anti-war Labour and non-voters
THE LIBERAL PARTY: The remainder of the original Liberal Party who refused to accept the Liberal merger with the SDP. Strong local support based around Liverpool, where they have 3 councillors, meant they finished 6th in 1999 gaining 2.2% (22,000+ votes) in 1999 although they still lost their deposit. They have no national press coverage, and limited regional coverage. Their vote is unlikely to change significantly from the 1999 level.
Prediction: Small decrease in votes
OTHERS: There are other parties standing candidates but these are unlikely to attract significant support.
Prediction: No surprises. Little support.
The purpose of this article is to inform people. To ensure that we keep out the BNP, anti-racist voters will have to vote tactically, at this election, in this region. I would ask Indymedia readers to research the above information and to make up their own minds. Anti-racist votes for parties that finish with less votes than the BNP will do absolutely nothing to reduce the chances of a racist being elected as our MEP.
I'd ask party activists to correct me on any incorrect information, but to avoid blatant political advertising, attacks on other parties or sabotage (so this information can stay up and people can use it). I have tried to be as impartial as possible because the desire to stop a racist MEP from becoming one of our North West representatives should be more powerful than the disagreements democratic parties have with each other.
A 9% vote for a 4th placed party should ensure the BNP are defeated. Indymedia readers should be left to make up their own minds which of the above options is best placed to do this, but whatever you decide, please don't comment on it, because then it will become advertising and everyone else loses the information. The only winners then are the BNP.
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